Playoff Fantasy Projections Algorithm
How We Calculate Scoring Projections
A key feature on FantasyPostseason.com is our customized projected player rankings. A detailed explanation of how this is computed is described below.
Fantasy Player Value - Projected Stats on a Per Game Basis
We start by determining the projected value of each player eligible for the postseason:
- We identify each fantasy league’s statistical categories (i.e. Runs, Home Runs, RBIs), and the values assigned for each (i.e. Run = 1 pt, Home Run = 6 pts, RBI = 3 pts). Note: Each league commissioner determines the categories and values they would like to use.
- Using every player’s regular season stats, we normalize each of the stat categories on a per game basis (i.e. Avg. Runs = Total Runs / Total Games).
- We multiply the averages by the league’s value for each category (i.e. Weighted Avg. Runs = Avg. Runs * Run Value).
- We summarize all the weighted averages to get a total for each player (i.e. Player X Total = Weighted Avg. Runs + Weighted Avg. Home Runs + Weighted Avg. RBIs).
Fantasy Team Value – Projected Number of Playoff Games
After calculating each player’s value, our algorithm factors in the number of games that each playoff team is expected to participate in during the playoffs:
- We estimate the total projected number of postseason games per round (by team and by sport). Using a combination of historical probabilities for upsets and current seeding values, we determine the number of games that each team should be expected to play. Here’s an example for the college basketball tournament:
- 6 rounds. Only one game played by team per round. We do not count the play-in game, and stop the projections at the Final Four (since there are four #1 seeds):
# 1 Seed: 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 0 (5 projected games)
# 2 Seed: 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 (4 projected games)
# 3-4 Seeds: 1 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 0 (3 projected games)
# 5-6 Seeds: 1 + 0.7 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 (1.7 projected games)
# 7 Seed: 1 + 0.6 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 (1.6 projected games)
# 8-9 Seeds: 1 + 0.5 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 (1.5 projected games)
# 10 Seed: 1 + 0.4 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 (1.4 projected games)
# 11-12 Seeds: 1 + 0.3 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 (1.3 projected games)
# 13-16 Seeds: 1 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 (1 projected game)
- We identify each fantasy league’s round multipliers (i.e. Round 1 = 1 pt, Round 2 = 2 pts, Round 3 = 3 pts). The exception is college football, where there is only 1 bowl game per team.
- We multiply the team’s projected games by the league’s value for each round (i.e. Team A’s Projected Round 1 Value = Team A’s Projected Round 1 Games * League’s Round 1 Multiplier).
Combined Player & Team Value
We then combine the player and team projected values:
- We multiply the total for each player by his team’s round value (i.e. Player A’s Projected Round 1 Value = Player A’s Total * His Team’s Projected Round 1 Value).
- We summarize each value by round to get a projected total for each player (i.e. Player A’s Overall Projected Total = Player A’s Projected Round 1 Value + Player A’s Projected Round 2 Value + Player A’s Projected Round 3 Value).
Final Fantasy Player Rankings and Special Cases
By performing the above process, projections for each postseason player are created. However there are some caveats:
- Regular season fantasy studs are expected to raise their games during the playoffs. Hence, we have special factoring that allows us to ratchet up a player’s expected per game fantasy scoring production.
Players who are injured and likely out for the year are given projections of 0.
Role players who have played in a miniscule number of regular season games are often excluded or provided with minimal projections (to avoid anomalies).